Going by conventional wisdom, the BJP has little chance of winning the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat in Assam.

That’s because Bengali-speaking Muslims form a majority of the electorate of this parliamentary seat now. Last year’s delimitation exercise resulted in three Muslim-majority Assembly segments that were part of the then Kaliabor Lok Sabha seat being added to Nagaon parliamentary constituency.

At the same time, three Hindu-majority Assembly segments--Baharampur, Hojai and Lumding--were hived off from Nagaon Lok Sabha seat and made part of another Lok Sabha seat.

Of the eight Assembly segments under Nagaon Lok Sabha seat, the BJP holds four while the Congress holds three and the AIUDF one. Before delimitation, Nagaon Lok Sabha seat was made up of nine Assembly seats; the BJP had won seven of those in the 2021 Assembly elections while the Congress and AIUDF won one each.

Post-delimitation, of the total electorate of about 18 lakh in Nagaon, nearly 11 lakh are Muslims and the remaining seven lakh are Hindus. The Nagaon seat should, thus, have been an easy pick for the Congress or the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

But that is not the case, and the BJP candidate here, Suresh Bora, is poised as a favourite. The reasons for this are many.

One, a massive wave has been generated in the BJP’s favour with work commencing on a Rs 27,000 crore semiconductor plant being set up by the Tatas at Jagiroad (read this).

This prestigious project--the largest private investment in the Northeast till date--has altered the political dynamics of Nagaon and generated a surge of support for the BJP.

Two, the AIUDF has mounted a tough challenge to the Congress with its founder-president Maulana Badruddin Ajmal addressing a series of rallies here.

Ajmal, who has been winning the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat in Lower Assam since 2009, is highly popular among Bangladesh-origin Bengali-speaking Muslims of Assam.

In his rallies, Ajmal had launched sharp attacks on the Congress (and the BJP as well). He had been accusing the Congress of treating Bengali-speaking Muslims as mere vote banks and doing nothing for them.

Ajmal’s attacks on the Congress is expected to split the Muslim vote between AIUDF’s Aminul Islam and the Congress’ Pradyut Bordoloi who won the seat in 2019.

Saiful Islam Choudhury, a popular advocate who is well-known for fighting legal battles pro bono on behalf of poor Muslims, is also in the fray and is expected to get a good number of Muslim votes.

Another Muslim candidate--Rabbul Haque--fielded by the Rashtriya Ulama Council is expected to bag a number of Muslim votes.

To top this, the BJP is also expected to bag a fair share of Muslim votes. This is evident from the fact that BJP candidate Suresh Borah’s meetings and rallies have been drawing a fair share of Muslims.

“I am confident of getting the support of a good number of Muslims. Muslim community leaders have met me and assured me of their support. Muslims, like all citizens of India, are keen on development and they have realised that the BJP is the best party to usher in progress. The Modi government’s track record of development over the last ten years has won them over,” Borah told Swarajya.

Another factor working in the BJP’s favour is the consolidation of Hindu votes. The delimitation exercise that made Nagaon Lok Sabha seat a Muslim majority one has caused considerable consternation among Hindus.

The Nagaon Lok Sabha seat has been represented by prominent Congress leaders, including former Congress president Dev Kanta Barooah who also served as a Union Minister and Governor of Bihar. He was the elder brother of famous Assamese poet Nabakanta Barooah.

Another well-known personality who won this seat thrice (1984, 1991 and 1996) was Asom Gana Parishad’s Muhi Ram Saikia. Saika was a well-known educationist and was the principal of Nowgong College.

Well-known tea planter, social worker and philanthropist Rajen Gohain won this seat four times (1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014) for the BJP.

The incumbent Congress MP, Pradyut Bordoloi, is also a well-known politician who held important portfolios in the second and third Tarun Gogoi governments.

“Having been represented by well-known figures, Hindu voters of Nagaon were distressed over the prospect of a Bangladesh-origin Muslim becoming their Lok Sabha MP. This had led to a consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the BJP,” Raktim Gogoi, a prominent businessman of Nagaon town who also owns a tea garden told Swarajya.

The BJP’s formidable organisational machinery has also worked hard to mobilise Hindu voters of Nagaon.

BJP leaders told Swarajya that over the last few weeks, BJP karyakartas have gone from door to door to mobilise voters. “Our brief is to ensure that the maximum number of Hindus cast their votes. Our grassroots workers have been working very hard to convince voters of the need to go to their booths and vote,” said a BJP leader who has been overseeing Suresh Borah’s election campaign.

Borah says that another major factor that is working in his favour is the ‘twin magic’ of Modi and ‘Mama’ (as Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is fondly addressed by Assam’s common folks). “The twin ‘Modi magic’ and ‘Mama magic’ will work in my favour. PM Modi and CM Sarma have, in close coordination with each other, ushered in unprecedented development that is changing the face of Assam very rapidly. No one, including Muslims, has been left untouched by this and that is why I will win. People will vote for me to ensure that the ‘double engine sarkar’ continues to develop Assam at a very fast pace,” Borah told Swarajya.

Acknowledging the effect that AIUDF president Badruddin Ajmal’s intensive campaign in Nagaon has had on Muslims here, Borah said that his prime opponent is the AIUDF’s Aminul Islam and not Pradyut Bordoloi (Congress).

“The Congress will come third. The AIUDF will get the second position,” he declared.

Going by a quick survey of what the electorate of Nagaon say and feel, and feedback from the ground, it appears that Borah’s claim may well come true.

And if that happens, the BJP would be pulling off a miracle of sorts by winning a Muslim-majority seat.

Also read: BJP lost this Assam seat to Congress after a 25-year run. Now a semiconductor plant is strengthening its prospects — ground report from Nagaon

Bangladeshi Muslims in Assam

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